Odds of Winning the Spanish Christmas Lottery: What Chance Does Your Ticket Have?
Quick answer: Each number has a 1 in 100,000 chance of winning the Christmas El Gordo. But the draw pays out 15,304 prizes per series, so about 1 in every 6.5 tenths wins something. Excluding the refund (which only returns your €20), the chance of winning money is roughly 1 in 19.
By the Serviloto team, Lottery Office no. 40 in Málaga (Spain).
How are Christmas Lottery odds calculated?
The Christmas Lottery uses 100,000 numbers, from 00000 to 99999, and each has the same chance. To work out the odds of a prize, divide the number of prizes in that category by 100,000. It does not matter how many series there are or how many tenths are sold: your number’s odds stay the same.
Odds of each prize
These are the odds per tenth according to the Christmas Lottery 2026 prize programme:
| Prize | Prizes per series | Odds per tenth |
|---|---|---|
| El Gordo (1st prize) | 1 | 1 in 100,000 |
| 2nd prize | 1 | 1 in 100,000 |
| 3rd prize | 1 | 1 in 100,000 |
| 4th prize | 2 | 1 in 50,000 |
| 5th prize | 8 | 1 in 12,500 |
| Pedrea (€100) | 1,794 | about 1 in 56 |
| Refund (€20) | 9,999 | about 1 in 10 |
| Any prize | 15,304 | about 1 in 6.5 |
What if I buy several tickets?
If you buy several different numbers, your odds add up: with 5 different numbers, your chance of El Gordo becomes 5 in 100,000. If you buy several tenths of the same number, the odds do not change, but your prize multiplies if it wins.
Are some numbers more likely to win?
No. Although some final digits have matched El Gordo more often over the years, every draw is independent and all numbers have exactly the same probability.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of winning the Christmas El Gordo?
1 in 100,000 for each number you play.
What are the odds of winning anything in the Christmas Lottery?
About 1 in 6.5, counting all prizes and the refund.
What are the odds of winning the pedrea?
There are 1,794 pedrea prizes per series, roughly a 1 in 56 chance.
Does having more tenths of the same number improve my odds?
No. It only increases what you win if it comes up. To improve your odds you need to play different numbers.
Do the number of series affect the odds?
No. Series determine how many tenths exist of each number, but the chance of your number winning is the same.
Play responsibly
The lottery is a game of chance. Always play within your budget and only if you are 18 or over. Information and support are available at jugarbien.es.
